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Bill Simon, head of Wal-Mart's U.S. division, is leaving the retail giant, the company said Thursday.

Any major shakeup at Wal-Mart is closely watched because the company is so important — it tops the Fortune 500 list with annual sales approaching a half-trillion dollars. So lots of people are speculating about what Simon's departure really means. Here are some theories:

The Simplest Explanation

Simon was a top candidate to become the chief executive after the previous CEO, Michael Duke, retired. But in February, Doug McMillon stepped into that job.

Wal-Mart spokesman David Tovar has been telling reporters that it's "not unusual" for one executive to leave when passed over for the top spot. Simon himself said in a statement: "This felt like the right time to move on and focus on my next opportunity."

So this may be a routine career move. Nothing to see here, please move along.

The Small-Store Explanation

Charles Fishman, author of "The Wal-Mart Effect," says Simon may have been pushed out in favor of someone who's better at operating small-format stores.

Wal-Mart's shift to smaller grocery and convenience-type stores has been dramatic. This year — for the first time ever — the company will open more small stores, i.e., those with less than 40,000 square feet, than superstores, with 200,000 square feet.

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